there is a policy loosening is expected

The market remains weak, but property stocks bucked the outbreak, Chong Hing resources had risen more than 8% swtor power leveling, poly real estate vanke a manifestly high Cao Xute yesterday, the real estate sector as a whole rose 0.38%, strong trend is generally considered with hood. Flows according to the real estate sector yesterday exception of 320 million, vanke a 80 million,Poly real estate into the nearly 50 million.　　While underestimating values have to a certain extent as property stocks "backing", but as a result of stringent regulation currently under the background of the market remains weak, real estate stocks end unspeakable easily. Financial pressure reaching record levels capitals on real estate regulation aims at prices return to a reasonable price, and most cities still in stagnation periodReal changes is not obvious.　　As of October, the national average price rose by 7%, published price gains control of the target cities, majority appeared certain to rise, individual capital city upper limit of the current rates are close to the beginning of the development of control objectives. Markets are in confrontation with provision for delays, is because the cash-strapped 2011 developers does notReach passive price levels. Traditionally developers active in the process of adjustment of industry pricing behaviour is more difficult to happen, only financial pressures force companies to cut prices of real power. We systematically test the developers current and historical financial pressure situation, if countries continue to insist on the property of austerity policies, and industry funding pressures at the beginning of next year will be closer to the end of this year 2008Highest level in years, more developers due to the cash-strapped and price promotions, 2012 will be the confrontation was open year. Developers after the inflow of capital expenditures and estimates, we calculate its calendar year capital surplus from 2006 to 2010, developers fund surplus accounted for about 9% per cent of total expenditure, that is, if developers capital surplus9% about capital expenditures, financial stress, it will be close to 2008 levels, passive larger price pressure. Such situations occur, need Bank lending and deposit and pre collection combined growth dropped to 8%, 1 taken together growth is still 15.1%, but at the current ease of business access to bank loans and sold back to speed the end of the yearOr early next year, developers funds will fall to lowest level ever, decline in house prices channels will be opened. Loose when it will come back next time we believe that next year's real estate go through from blank to loosen control policy is expected to occur because short-term administrative regulation of real estate should not be changed, otherwise the regulation will be wasted, and fine-tuning of macro-policies of monetary conditions is difficult to directlyPositive effect on real estate, real estate new construction and investment showed a significant decline next year, slowing effect on the economy is obvious, if housing prices to come down to a reasonable level, regulation loose expected real estate market will inevitably occur. Although House prices fell is about to enter the channel, but we think that still need to adhere to policies, policies here we mainly refer to the central level. With the market regulationWhole degrees of understanding, local governments and Central game is increased, some local governments have relaxed within the scope of its capabilities, but its means are limited, so we referred to is the policy of a strong central level policy. Central level control in the early fall in house prices will not and should not be relaxed, otherwise the regulation results achieved easily wasted, because of the 2010 substantiveEffects have been demonstrated. States at the April 2010 introduced stringent regulatory policies, on trading volume of effect is immediate, area of negative second-quarter sales, price increases have been significant control. But in the four quarters due to concerns about economic growth, and loosening monetary policy, loan growth and stocks and currency starting in July hit bottomRebound, leading to a four-quarter price-volume of Qi Sheng appears again.　　Thanks to the experience of last year, central level short term that is less likely to be relaxed regulation. Central level policy if relaxed, first for first-time home buyers needs, because this part of the buyers should be protected, you can use Windows guidance cut first-time home buyers home buyers and mortgage rates.Economic growth and regulation of real estate are a seesaw, real estate new construction and investment showed a significant decline next year, its negative impact on the economy in the first half of 2012 will be fully reflected. Prices contained and appear under the background of certain adjustments, easing is also expected to be gradually enhanced. We expect the 2011, 2012, housing starts increased by 16% And-9.7%, investment growth and 29.4%, respectively. Started by the affordable housing and housing two-part, 2012 affordable housing starts are expected Number Sets of 8 million, compared to declines in 20% of the 10 million units by 2011 and commercial House's history started in the lowest growth rates for 2008 are available 2.3%, but at the momentHouse prices into the down channel, Enterprise dynamic also started turning changed, so we expect housing starts fell 3% 2012 real estate as a whole new start y/y growth 7.9%. On the premise of new housing starts fell 7.9%, expected in 2012 17.8% real estate investment growth, increased compared to 2011Speed will have a more marked decline.　　Geometric real estate property on the economic impact on the economic impact next year embodied in two aspects, one is from the expenditure approach considering, drop of real estate investments have a direct impact on economic growth; the second is from the revenue analysis, real estate investment fall will affect the associated industrial gross output and value added and low economic growth. First, the inputs by 2011Output ratio, changes in unit growth in real estate investment will affect the 0.069% changes of GDP growth, we judge the real estate investment growth fell from 29.4% per cent in 2012, that is, real estate investment fall 11.6%, GDP growth fell 0.8%. Second, the influence factor of real estate investment1.5, assuming the rate of value added of its associated industries 7%, subject to change per unit of real estate investment through the associated industry together affect GDP growth 0.011% the old republic power leveling, 2012, the real estate investment growth 11.6%, down 0.13% economic growth. Consider, if the real estate investment as weAs expected, without considering other factors change, subject to real estate will have 0.93% impact on economic growth next year.　　Sinolink macro-economic growth expected in 2011 is 9.2%, calculated in accordance with this 2012 growth fell back to 8.3%. Valuation and performance lock for the first half of next year at a fundamental decline and policy stage of hard pine, difficult toExceeding expectations, but given the current focus on listed companies ' valuations at historical lows, fall also is not very big, so property stocks the main turbulence-dominated in the first half of next year; seesaw effect between economic and property control in the second half will be reflected even more obvious, there is a policy loosening is expected, property stocks valuations are expected to be some room for promotion, more investment opportunities appear in theThe second half. In terms of subject-selecting investors can follow three: 1, a first-line leading defensive because locking rates are at historically good valuations and performance conditions, recommended China vanke, poly real estate, investment property, the golden land group. 2, high discount regional leader, currently such discount level net worth from the angle of the industrial capital of the company has strong absorptionGravity, it is recommended that the first shares, first city kingberry Chase, Fuxing shares.　　3, new profit growth point company, recommended huaye real estate, Zenith city, such as. (The writer, sinolink securities analyst)