129770904179687500_168Markets this week's "cold", the Shanghai composite index fell a week or 2.3%, line fall six months, market hot suddenly cool, drop to a unit increase. So, yesterday March of HSBC PMI data record low, whether the market worries about an economic slowdown? Pensions market to market what to do? February sales real estate market is indicatingDeteriorating economic growth? To this end, the financial investment newspaper reporter's exclusive interview with Southwest Securities Research Center General Manager Zhang Shiyuan, Hong Yuan securities and wealth management center, Tang Yonggang Huang Xuejun, guosen securities chief strategy analyst. 1:PMI economic data keep the keywords of rate cut inevitable Zhang Shiyuan: HSBC announced yesterday the March PMI48.1, 1.5% lower than the per cent in February, its lowest in four months, this shows that China's macro-economy in the downlink channel. Category index, amid European debt crisis isn't over, impact on China's exports will also continue, regardless of domestic demand and external demand were continued weakening, the March index of new orders in four months newLow, at the same time suggesting that domestic demand may slow faster. From the United States and Japan economies such as the situation is not good. On the domestic front, local debt crisis has affected local government investment landslide, in central corporate profit growth at the same time, local State-owned enterprises's profits are falling, and many of these companies is a listed company and, therefore, will directly affect the assessment of the stockValue. Tang Yonggang: HSBC launched HSBC China Manufacturing PMI preview March index 48.1 per cent, not only less than 50, and also hit a four-month minimum. HSBC PMI data, HSBC China March output index initial of 47.9, than the February decline in value also has a certain level, and its lowest since two months. 50Usually considered PMI index by industry "watershed", PMI reading above 50, description the manufacturing sector as a whole is running well; PMI index below 50 indicates that the overall downward trend of manufacturing industry. While the market expected, but yesterday's market was also made with the direction of the reaction. Estimates next month, 1st published by the China Association of logistics and procurement of PMIAnd also will be "falling up less". Current management was given to the promotion of domestic demand is high expectations, but the fact that in the case of the global economic downturn, Chinese domestic demand
swtor gold, it is impossible to have in terms of performance. From the middle of next month published macro-economic data, will be evident in the first quarter of this year. Huang Xuejun: March, HSBC China manufacturing p48.1 MI preview index, indicates that the economy is still rather cold, passed with the expected slowdown of industrial production in the near future the same signal. From the index view
diablo 3 power leveling, in March, new orders rose from 46.1% per cent in February dropped to 4-month low points, although the new export orders index rose to 48.7% per cent in February, but still below the 50% waterRidge. The first two months of this year, exports, consumption and major economic data, including industrial production growth rates are significantly lower than expected. But more worrying is, slowing manufacturing activity had begun to affect the job market, job index hit its lowest point since March 2009. However, weak data provides scope for easing, increases the possibility of easing in the near future,Among them, cut the deposit rate will become inevitable. Keyword 2: adjustment of pensions or the people's livelihood will promote the relationship between taxation Zhang Shiyuan: current cumulative balances the concentration of basic pension investments of $ 2 trillion in bank deposits, bonds and other fixed income, investment inflation brought about by "negative interest rate" risk. According to the one-year interest rate interest, average deposit rate in the last decade 2.88%, and CPI rose to 3% per cent in recent years, depreciation of the pension problem is very obvious. States now has 100 billion of pension market in Guangdong, this is just a beginning, more pension will also be approved in the future market, but not positions above the estimated pension at 2,500 points. Pension not to rescue, but to make money.Tang Yonggang: results may be more symbolic than practical significance of the pension market, because pensions are the people of "nourishing life", once the deficit is "can not pay for the loss", who are willing to take such a big risk? Therefore, most of its investment products are fixed-income products, even if there is a small amount of money into the stock market may also select market blue chips like banks, as itSamples of stock does not necessarily rise in the short term, but the risk of falling is very small. Of course, significant impact because the market index of blue-chip stocks on the market, stabilize the market blue chips, will stabilize the market as a whole. At the same time, pensions market success is about people's livelihood problems, therefore has the potential to promote the adjustment of tax policy of stock market, reduce the tax burden of securities market.From this point of view, have a positive impact on the market. Huang Xuejun: over the coming decades, China's pension gap will continue to exist, on the premise of ensuring liquidity and security, to increase the yield on pension investment management, becoming an important part of the construction of China's pension system as a whole and the content. According to statistics, the provincial pension only accounted for in many areas of the pension3% less, where old-age pensions in the future promotion of discretionary investment business, depends on the advancement of the social security funds and manpower at the provincial level. I actually be able to buy shares in the secondary market funding ratio will not be large, because the nature of pension investment in it is discreet, mainly reflected in the following aspects: first, investing in stocks is very small percentage of second marketDemanding conditions, only it is "bottom" will intervene only when, otherwise, would rather missed, could not do wrong; three are on the individual stock selection is "one" or even "miles to pick one". 3 key words: property tax adjustment and severely affects the stock market long-term Zhang Shiyuan: sources say, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, in FebruaryUrban commercial housing sales continue to decline, it should be said that we expected. Because of these cities in February sales of commercial housing prices have fallen less than in January, developers don't want to continue "to change" policy while buyers are waiting, looking forward to more substantial price cuts occur. This game, there's going to have results of sales continue to decline. The knotFruit not only affected the growth in fixed asset investment, impact on macro-economic fundamentals improved, but also because a few years ago a lot of folk investment and trust products related to the real estate industry, private equity, real estate market in a deadlock state now make those funds to a "knot", so developers should continue to cut prices, money collected as soon as possible, utilizing not only theDeveloper's own funds, while also utilizing these funds, so that the whole market funds are "live". Tang Yonggang: national, held shortly before the "two sessions", our senior said, at present, China's housing prices are far from return to a reasonable price. I thought rational prices, should be made commensurate prices and income of the residents, prices match the inputs and a reasonable profit.Therefore, regulation cannot be relaxed. If you relax, will be wasted, and will lead to confusion of the real estate market, is not conducive to long-term, healthy and stable development of real estate. Recently approved and transmitted to the national development and Reform Commission of the State Council of the views of the focus on the 2012 reform of the economic system, clearly, to accelerate the reform of fiscal and tax this year. Timely expansion of property tax in scope. LandIntra-industry analysis and forecast, is expected to relieve Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Chongqing, selected list of second batch of pilot urban real estate tax reform. This suggests that taxing the stock room is the trend, rate of new home sales may create a new low. Huang Xuejun: currently affecting real estate market is an important factor in the stock market. February first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen commercial housingSales and create a new low. Meanwhile, the February decline in home prices in these cities than in January narrowed, it that the developers did not want to further "the price-for". If this phenomenon continued to exist
tera power leveling, then there would be a stalemate between the two sides of supply and demand, economic decline rate increased. From the perspective of micro-level, 32 listed companies total nearly 500 billion, More than $ 30% increase over 30%, make the already unbearable burden inventory room and enterprises more breathless, exposing the potential problems facing the industry0 days average near the near the point location is the key to this market rally merchant breakthrough, or a technical rebound at this location. At the same time, because the line is half a year on the history of "line of Bull and bear markets" so much market attention. Market hot, high-concept to go today have tumbled, many stocks fell, lack of other hot spots in the market and earn money to collapse in effect, helps theGold closes higher desire to decrease strongly. Based on current fundamental, policy, funding, and technical and market in the first half of the year likely to "time-for-space" form of performance, therefore, decreases in space is not large, only time longer, so next week, the market is likely to continue to maintain the shock down pattern. Early gains too large of a unit should not be involved, and should be taken "to see moreLittle, on a wait-and-see "operations policy. Tang Yonggang: Although the February exchange rate is still low, but commercial paper falling interest rates will cause an increase in appetite for risk capital; plus the deposit rates at historically high levels, so the "labor day Festival will be reduced once the deposit rate; in addition, with the real estate trust, PE, art, real estate, loan sharksAtrophy of the asset bubble, emerging stock market valuations of depression value, money or will again return to the stock market, stock market play a supporting role. Current market valuations more reasonable, on the secondary market, large, blue-chip earnings are only about 12 times, about the market as a whole is 20 times forward earnings times, even past high junior, second board stocks,Valuations are starting to come down to a more reasonable intervals, the current market valuations are currently being repaired, after adjusting upward. May wish to take positions in the callback can focus on oversold, low value stocks, which exist in many sectors in, requires careful excavation. Huang Xuejun: short term, the market is at a near six-line shocks, yesterday received the half below the lineBut below half a year is not far away, in ruthless suppression of funds in more cases, close proximity to the 60-day moving average line, in the vicinity of the line will be supported. Seen from the medium-term, market turmoil will continue through mid-April, has announced that first quarter macroeconomic data occurs only after the direction of breakthrough. Now to be sure of is that economic growth will continue to come down, fall notTo say. After the data, if monetary policy relaxation, the form of a liquidity-driven market and higher probability of DEA; otherwise, it will break down, returning to the bottom. In this case, should adhere to such investment policy: on the one hand, and control positions, short-term operations; on the other hand, focus on stock with a defensive function, such as medicalMedicine, food and beverages, commercial department store.
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